Alternatives to Popular FPL Assets - FPL GW1
Introduction
FPL HAS LAUNCHED, REPEAT FPL HAS LAUNCHED!!! If you haven't yet logged back into your Fantasy Premier League account, then go and do that right now (or as soon as you've finished reading this article), but I imagine that if you're reading this post you (like me) were firmly on the low-ID hype train and were refreshing the FPL homepage from midday-launch.
Now that the game has officially launched, it's time to start drafting, thinking and tinkering with our teams, with the first deadline of 16th August already less than a month away. In this post, I will specifically be discussing some alternative FPL assets to the currently most popular players, or at least, players who have been hyped up in recent weeks.
Gordon -> Barnes
Yes that's right, John Barnes' son is making his PL debut!... *checks notes*, sorry Harvey Barnes (6.5m) is back from injury, and could be a great alternative to popular Newcastle winger Anthony Gordon (7.5m). As mentioned in the Fixture Analysis post I recently wrote for AllAboutFpl, Barnes is a cheaper (1m less) and, according to the raw numbers, better FPL option for those of you looking for a Newcastle attacker for your GW1 draft.
When I say better in raw numbers, what I mean is that last season, in not a small amount of gametime, Barnes actually averaged a better xG/90 AND better xA/90 than Gordon. The caveat, as mentioned, however, is that Barnes played less than 800 minutes in the league last season, and made 21 appearances, many from the bench, whereas Gordon played almost 3000 minutes (3rd most in the NUFC squad) and made 35 appearances, mostly as a starter. This is without taking into account all of the champions league, Fa cup and league cup games that Barnes missed at the start of the season through injury. Therefore, it's hard to know whether Barnes would be capable of maintaining such a high rate of return over the course of the PL season, as these extraordinary xG/xA numbers were produced in such a small sample size.
That being said, in his final season with Leicester, he scored 13 goals and provided 1 assist, averaging 0.3xG/90 and 0.1xA/90. Now, I'll be the first to point out that 0.3xG/90 is slightly off his 0.41xG/90 from last season, and that 0.1xA/90 is perhaps a bit of a drop off from over 0.5xA/90 last season. It should however be taken into account that the Foxes were relegated that season, and that Barnes scored about a quarter of Leicester's goals that season, dragging them through games and almost to survival. His performances that season led to Newcastle's fiscally conscious owners to spend a lot of money on the English winger, and the only thing stopping him last season was injury.
His stats won't be as out of this world as they seem from the small sample size last season, but I expect them to be decent, at least as good as Gordon's, as long as he can nail down a starting spot. I haven't heard/seen anything about Newcastle looking for a new winger, but if they were to look then I would be concerned for Barnes' minutes and would perhaps look elsewhere, BUT, that hasn't happened yet so for me Barnes is a fairly safe bet.
Bailey -> Rogers
Fresh off the back of a brace in his Villa's first pre-season friendly, Rogers makes this list. Going from Championship boy wonder to starter for a Champions League team is no mean feat, but Rogers made the leap successfully last season, starting a number of games towards the end of the season for the Villains. There's talk of Diaby leaving and another winger coming in (the likes of Felix, Williams and others have been mentioned), but even if this were the case, I'd still fancy Rogers to start on the other wing ahead of Bailey, start in the 10, or even challenge the big money signing for their spot in the team.
Having bagged himself 3 goals and 1 assist in under 700 minutes, he could be an absolute steal at just 5.0 million. There are some concerns about his minutes, but he was so impressive last season, that I could honestly see him starting the season in the team, and if not, off the bench he's still a threat. So, what makes him better than Bailey? Well, Bailey has better xG and xA numbers than Rogers, so it's not necessarily the stats that are driving this decision, firstly it's the price, there's a 1.5m difference between the two players, which could be very useful if you're trying to fit Salah, Haaland, Palmer and Saka all into your team, and secondly, it's his potential.
Nobody saw Palmer as an option, nevermind an essential at the beginning of last season, but his price rise (the largest in FPL history) demonstrates how quickly and easily a young player with talent can break into a team and produce real output at the highest level. He impressed in huge games towards the end of last season against the likes of Arsenal, Chelsea, and Man City, despite being rotated with Villa's other attackers.
Emery is likely to continue rotating his players, which makes Bailey a no-go for me at 6.5m, with players like Groß and Neto (and others) at the same pricepoint, whereas Rogers could be a great 5th midfield choice for the start of the season; watch him perform, watch his price rise, stonks... or if he doesn't start then you can bench him or transfer him out with little risk of his price falling. Either way, for me he's a great option.
Salah -> Jota
Salah is, of course, already the talk of the FPL town, making some people's first drafts and not others. With many omitting Haaland from their first drafts, Salah is an affordable, proven, easy pick for our teams... Right? WRONG. I believe that Jota could be an even better asset than Salah, and far better than other Liverpool attackers Gakpo and Diaz.
With a position change to midfielder, and a pricetag of 7.5m, cheaper than Saka, Fernandes and Foden, Jota, like Salah is an affordable, proven, and, in my opinion, easy pick for our teams. There is a 50/50 chance that Jota starts upfront for the Reds against Ipswich, ahead of Nunez, and his versatility means there is also a chance that he could start on the left, or even at the 10 (not my suggestion), raising him up the FPL pecking order ahead of the likes of Gakpo and particularly Diaz.
It's hard to know exactly how Slot's team will play, but, in my opinion, Jota fits the mould of a Slot N.9 better than our lord and saviour Darwizzy. Jota is better at holding up the ball, better at dropping deap, better at pressing, arguably as good as Nunez in terms of attacking position, and far better than his Uraguayan teammate at finishing. Last season Jota was one of the biggest out performers of xG in the league (which isn't a good thing), but proves what was already known by many, he is an elite finisher. While I don't expect him to continue scoring over his xG substantially, he will undoubtedly score goals at the rate of his xG - something which cannot be said of Nunez.
If Jota is starting week-in week-out as Liverpool's N.9 out of position (in FPL) at 7.5m, knowing his track record of scoring (let's pretend he's not always injured), he will quickly become an essential FPL asset - no question about it. Salah showed a bit of a drop off in terms of output last season, but if he continues his trend of becoming more of a playmaker than a goalscorer then this will only benefit Jota more. The only concern is his minutes, but as outlined above, he's a better player than Nunez in almost every respect, and is likely to be able to get to grips with a new pressing set-up and understand what Slot is asking from him much quicker than Nunez.
It's easy to forget that Jota was Liverpool's third highest goal scorer in the league last season with 10, only behind Salah and Nunez, having played less than half of their minutes (1164 vs 2556 vs 2037). He is also third in the squad for xG/90 and 6th for xA/90. The sole season where he played over 2000 minutes for Liverpool, he scored 15 goals in the league, so clearly the issue is not his output, but mainly just his injury record. Having had a decent rest this summer (due to the fact he barely played at the Euros) he should be fit and ready to start the season well come mid-August (touch wood), and at 7.5m he's an absolute bargain.
Mitchell -> Muñoz
As you can see, both players spend most of their time in the opposition half, even against a team as dangerous as Villa, and both players were able to get into the opposition penalty box. Taking the average positions at face value, in this game, it's also clear to see that Munoz had a higher average position than Mitchell, but only fractionally. However, when we look deeper into the data, Munoz comes out on top...
While in this specific game, both players ventured into the opposition penalty box, Munoz averages 2.63 touches in the opposition penalty box per 90, compared to only 1.52 for Mitchell. Munoz was producing 2.88 shot creating actions per 90, compared to only 1.32 for Mitchell. And finally, the big one, Munoz was averaging 0.23xG+xA/90, whereas Mitchell only managed 0.12xG+xA. Before we jump to any conclusions, it's vital to note that these stats are referring to each players last 365 days at Crystal Palace, meaning that Munoz' data is a much smaller sample size, and is mainly time spent under Glasner, skewing the data in his favour as Mitchell spent the majority of the last 365 days playing Hodgeball. What I'm saying is, we need to take this information with a pinch of salt.
This being said, Munoz had a fantastic season prior to his move to Palace (as mentioned in my fixture analysis post for AAFPL), scoring 5 goals and providing 1 assist in 16 games. Over the course of his career, the Colombian fullback is producing approximately 0.25xG+xA/90, which is excellent, particularly for FPL managers! Admittedly, his shot numbers have gone down since his move to the Premier League, while his creativity numbers have gone up. He's down from 1.25 shots/90 to 0.5, and is down from 0.21xG/90 to 0.07xG/90, a drop off which could be explained by the difference in quality between the Belgian first division and the PL, or by the new system, or any number of things. His creativity numbers, as mentioned, are on the rise, going from 0.06 assists/90 to 0.25 (although only from 0.13xAG/90 -> 0.15xAG/90, perhaps the Mateta affect...), and 1.25 key passes/90 to 1.31.
An interesting point, when looking at the data, is that his passes into the final third, and his passes into the penalty area are both significantly down since his move to the prem, which could hint at a number of things. My primary theory, is that Munoz is playing a more advanced role now for Palace, and is collecting the ball already in the final third, and then playing passes within it. His data suggests that he is not in fact receiving the ball outside and then carrying it into the final third, but receiving the ball already within the final third of the pitch. This would be in line with the heat map shown above, which suggests that he does spend a significant amount of time in the opposition half / third. It could also be down to the fact that he is not seen by Glasner / the other players as the main source of ball progression, and that instead he is being used as more of a final third and defensive third player - stop goal / score goal.
The numbers clearly point to Munoz being the better option, and while I don't think Mitchell is a bad choice for FPL, I'd be inclined to agree; Munoz would be my pick. I'd also like to point out that my obsession with Munoz began a long time ago, specifically ever since I watched a tiktok by talkcpfc back in January, who was ecstatic that Palace were finally signing a rightback after having rotated between 3 (clyne, ward and AWB) for the last 10 years. Since then I've been convinced that he's a game breaking FPL asset at 5.0m (previously 4.5m), and will continue to push this agenda until he actually hauls, at which point I'll be able to say 'I told you so' :).
Thanks for reading! If you liked this piece then drop a comment or tweet me and I'll write another one of these articles about Alternative FPL options. If you didn't like it then still tweet me, because it's good for my engagement, and I'll just ignore you.
Dylan
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