Introducing... Tino Livramento

Introducing... Tino Livramento

With the news that Kieran Trippier could be off to the Saudi Pro League this summer, there has been a lot of discussion on-line about who may take his place. With Newcastle currently already struggling to conform to PSR rules, and having to make emergency sales such as Anderson to Nottingham Forest for £35 million (yes you read that right £35 million), and Minteh to Brighton for a similar fee. Therefore I find it unlikely that Newcastle will look to dip into the market to find a replacement for Trippier, and will instead try to find a solution internally, let's explore the options and what it could mean for FPL. We'll be taking a look at the options in order of probability, starting with the most probable.

Livramento

The most obvious solution to this problem is Tino Livramento, who joined Newcastle last summer from Southampton. He has always struggled with Injury and this season was no different, although he did begin to play more and more towards the end of the season, particularly in Trippier's absence. At 4.5m he could be a decent FPL option for anyone who is worried about Trippier leaving, and/or unconvinced by Dan Burn, who himself could theoretically become a rotation risk with the likes of Hall, Lewis and Kelly all able to play that position. The main issue I have with Livramento as an FPL pick is his stats...

His stats on the surface level suggest that, while he is very good in possession, he is not very 'attack minded', especially when compared to the likes of Trippier. His 0.34 goal creating actions is good, but not exceptional when taking into account that none of the other offensive stats are anywhere near the level that one would expect of an attacking fullback. His shots/90 are non-existant, his assists/90 are not great and his goal threat is minimal. There's a lot of hype around Livramento at the moment, and honestly, I just don't see it.

If you are looking for a 4.5m Newcastle defender then Burn, or whoever starts at LB is just as good an option, as Livramento offers nothing in an attacking sense, so you'd be better off selecting an asset who is an aerial threat from corners / set pieces, ie. Burn.

While his numbers from his time at Southampton are decent, he has not been producing similar numbers during his limited time at Newcastle due to injury and other factors, so whilst the potential is definitely there, he is currently not a must have FPL option like Trippier was at points. Furthermore, he played more than enough minutes last season to have good numbers (1300 minutes), so that cannot be used as an argument against him.

Transfers

The next option is to find a solution through the transfer market, but up until now I have not been able to find any credible sources suggesting that Newcastle are actively looking for a RB, suggesting that Livramento is the solution in their eyes. If Trippier leaves then of course this situation may change and they may begin looking, but for the moment their priority seems to be a new CB.

The talk of a centre back like Thiaw coming in is an interesting decision, especially considering they have already bought in Kelly from Bournemouth on a free. I understand the depth argument, but this seems a slightly odd decision if Howe is planning on sticking with a 4-3-3, which got me thinking, maybe the solution is neither Livramento nor a transfer, but a system change...

System Change

I believe that due to the lack of noise around a new RB, despite the fact that both Livramento and Trippier are both known to be injury prone, that a system change is afoot on tyneside. On a number of occasions last season, Howe opted for a tactical shift away from his tried and tested 4-3-3, to more of a 3-4-3, notably against Spurs and Palace towards the end of the season.

In these two fixtures, the system change was down to injury and lack of personnel at fullback, leading to howe selecting a back 3 of Schar, Burn and Krafth, with Murphy and Andersen as wingbacks. At the time, some pundits suggested that this was more of just an asymmetrical 4-3-3, however, it was officially identified as a back 3 system by Glasner following the Palace game. This formation produced mixed results, a 4-0 win over Spurs and a 2-0 loss against Palace, but was hailed by many at the time as being exactly what Newcastle needed to inject some life back into their season, after a post Christmas slump. Murphy remains at the club, meaning that, if Trippier were to leave there would be at least two options at RWB, with Hall currently the only player in the squad who is a natural LWB (although I could see Joelinton playing as an energetic inverted LWB if necessary). 

After this game, Howe reverted back to a more conventional 4-3-3, but I believe that this experiment may have changed his/Newcastle's plans for what the team should look like and how it should play in the upcoming season. Something akin to a 3 at the back system was used in Newcastle's pre-season friendly against Hull, with Lewis Hall playing as a LWB/CM, an inverted wingback(?). If Hall is playing as a LWB, high up the pitch in attacking spaces, then he is clearly the best Newcastle defensive option to pick for our teams, over the likes of Livramento and Burn.

I think this formation/system change scenario is being majorly overlooked, and that it could have major implications for FPL if Burn is a CB, Hall a LWB/CM and Livramento either a RCB or RWB, depending on how advanced all of them play.

Conclusion

I think we need to wait and see what happens with Newcastle. See how they line up in pre-season, and see who departs, stays and comes in. If Trippier stays then he is a good differential, if a bit expensive at 6.0m. If he leaves but the system stays the same then I would overlook Livramento, who's numbers have not been good for a couple of years from an attacking perspective, preferring whoever is playing at CB (Botman/Schar/Lewis etc.) If my hypothesis is correct however, and a tweak in formation is the solution, then we would have to re-evaluate Livramento as a potentially more attacking RWB, and also look at who is playing on the opposite flank (as Dan Burn is unlikely to play LWB). I think that the transfers and make up of the squad point to a position change, if current rumors are true, but of course all that could change and this whole article could be pointless! My message: Let's wait and see...